Trump Approval Rating 2026: Latest Polls, Trends, and What They Mean Ahead of the Midterms

Meta Description: A data-driven look at Donald Trump's approval rating in July 2026 — the latest polling averages, key trends among independents, and what it could mean for the 2026 midterm elections.

Where Trump's Approval Rating Stands Right Now

As of mid-July 2026, President Donald Trump's approval rating remains underwater, but it has shown a modest uptick from its spring lows. According to the Silver Bulletin's polling average, Trump's net approval sat at roughly -17 in early July 2026, meaning around 17 points more Americans disapprove of his performance than approve. That marks his strongest reading since mid-April, up from -17.9 a week earlier and -18.5 a month prior.

Other trackers tell a similar story. FiftyPlusOne's polling average put disapproval at 59.0% versus approval at 37.1% as of July 14, 2026 — a wide gap that underscores how much ground Trump would need to make up before the midterms.

The Numbers Behind the Headlines

A few key data points stand out from recent surveys:

• Silver Bulletin average (early July 2026): Net approval around -17, an improvement from -18.5 a month earlier.
• FiftyPlusOne average (July 14, 2026): 37.1% approve, 59.0% disapprove.
• I&I/TIPP poll (July 2026): Job approval at 38% versus 54% disapproval, though personal favorability improved to 40%, up from 37% in June.
• Individual pollsters: Results vary widely — J.L. Partners recently found Trump at -6 net approval, while Talker Research/Scripps News found him at just -1, a notable outlier compared to firms like Quinnipiac (-17), the Independent Center (-16), TIPP (-16), and Echelon Insights (-17).

Analysts caution that some of the recent uptick is being driven by a handful of favorable outlier polls rather than a broad shift in public opinion. The more consistent picture across major, high-quality pollsters still shows Trump roughly 16 to 17 points underwater.

Why the Slight Rebound?

Trump's approval hit some of the lowest points of his second term in May 2026, driven largely by economic anxiety and foreign policy tensions. Since then, several factors appear to be contributing to a mild recovery:

1. Reversion toward the mean — After an unusually sharp dip, some analysts see the current numbers as a natural correction rather than a lasting turnaround.
2. Independent voters shifting slightly — Even small movements among independents can meaningfully change national averages.
3. High-profile national moments — Trump's visibility during the July 4th celebrations marking the 250th anniversary of the United States may have offered a temporary boost.
4. Gap between personal favorability and job approval — Polling shows Trump's personal favorability ticking up more than his job approval, suggesting people may like him somewhat more as a figure even while still critical of his policy performance.

The Bigger Picture: A Presidency That Started Underwater

It's worth noting that Trump began his second term with an approval rating of about 47% — already the second-lowest starting approval rating of any president in modern polling history, behind only his own first term. From there, his approval declined steadily through 2025 and into 2026, settling into the high 30s to low 40s for most of the year.

This context matters for anyone trying to interpret the latest polling: a "rebound" to -17 net approval is still a historically weak position for a sitting president heading into a midterm election cycle.

What It Means for the 2026 Midterms

With disapproval still outweighing approval by double digits in most reputable polls, Trump's numbers remain a significant factor for Republican candidates in competitive races. Historically, a president's approval rating is one of the strongest predictors of how their party performs in midterm elections. A net approval in the negative teens has often correlated with substantial losses for the incumbent president's party in Congress.

That said, individual races depend on far more than national approval numbers — local economic conditions, candidate quality, and turnout will all play a role. But the current trendline gives strategists on both sides plenty to watch in the months ahead.

Key Takeaways

• Trump's net approval rating is around -17 as of mid-July 2026, a modest improvement from a spring low of roughly -18.5.
• Polling averages show approval in the high 30s and disapproval in the high 50s.
• The uptick appears to be driven partly by a few outlier polls rather than a uniform shift in public opinion.
• Trump's approval has been underwater for nearly his entire second term, starting at a historically low 47%.
• These numbers remain closely watched as a leading indicator ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Data sourced from the Silver Bulletin, FiftyPlusOne, I&I/TIPP, and other major polling aggregators as of July 14–15, 2026. Polling averages are updated regularly and may shift as new surveys are released.